Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Box Office Predictions (May 25 - 28)

Following two weekends of utter disasters in Dark Shadows, Battleship, and What to Expect When You're Expecting, Sony hopes to avoid the trend with Men in Black III - nearly a decade since the franchise's last entry (a generally despised film, at that). Many prognosticators seem to think, for some reason, that the return of Will Smith and these characters guarantees some sort of 70+ million opening. I am not among them, and these folks clearly haven't learned several box office lessons from the past weeks by their failure to readjust expectations/projections from the cultural tidal wave created by The Avengers. If Burton and Depp's 70's era-humor couldn't reign in audiences, I'm not sure a generally unwelcome third entry (and Will Smith's first film in four years) with similar, "back-in-time" humor will be much of an exception. Indiana Jones this franchise is not, thus Sony should expect their threequel to go the way of Rush Hour 3 or The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon, with significantly diminishing returns, to a four-day haul of just below 50 million. It should be neck-and-neck with The Avengers throughout much of the weekend.

Chernobyl Diaries also opens. Given audiences disinterest in Blockbusters and seemingly surefire romantic comedy vehicles, yet another hand-held horror flick (without a readily identifiable hook or premise) doesn't seem to stand a chance making any sort of dent beyond drawing requisite horror geeks who will consume any and every genre entry Hollywood churns out (raises hand). Look for no more than 9 million. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel also expands into wide release (1100 theaters) after a moderately successful limited run. It should see close to 7 million for the Memorial day weekend.

Official Predictions:

1. The Avengers - 49.2 million (-12%)
2. Men in Black III - 48.9 million (NEW)
3. Battleship - 13.5 million (-47%)
4. The Dictator - 11.1 (-36%)
5. Chernobyl Diaries - 8.3 million (NEW)
6. What to Expect When You're Expecting - 8 million (-24%)
7. Dark Shadows - 7.3 million (-42%)
8. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel - 6.6 million (+106%)
9. The Hunger Games - 2.8 million (-5%)
10. Think Like a Man - 1.4 million (-46%)

No comments:

Post a Comment