Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Box Office Predictions (June 1-3)

May ends not with a bang, but a whimper - Hollywood must be reeling after three straight weekends of either out-and-out tanks, or lukewarm receptions, last weekend's MIB 3 joining the latter. Its 70 million 4-day weekend is nearly disasterous considering Sony's troubled production, which is estimated to have gotten close to 300 million! Luckily, the first weekend of June presents a contender with some pedigree to end the losing streak - Snow White and the Huntsman might not outwardly seem like a mammoth moneymaker, but upon closer inspection, its potential is fully realized. Being the only wide opener of the weekend doesn't hurt, but beyond that, its leads (Kristen Stewart and Chris Hemsworth) are two of the hottest young stars on the planet, right now. The joining of leads from Twilight and The Avengers is very likely to excite both sexes, if not leaning more towards females. Nevertheless, the trailer's focus on battle sequences, magical realism, and Charlize Theron (to be seen in next week's Prometheus, as well) indicate there is enough here to draw young males too. The failure of Mirror, Mirror earlier in 2012 should have no bearing on this, as each film is directed at different audiences. However, there remains a possibility of audience fatigue with The Avengers on the way out, so Snow White's potential may not be fully realized if viewers generally decide to take the weekend off. Given the 3700 theater count, expect Snow White to open with about 62 million.

The weekend's other release of note is For Greater Glory, starring Andy Garcia and receiving a modest 700 theater release. The target demographic should respond with some interest, but it's unlikely to see any sort of break-out here. The R-rated drama should make around 3 million for the weekend.

1 Snow White and the Huntsman 61.8 NEW
2 MIB 3 26.6 -62%
3 Avengers, The 21.6 -54%
4 Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 6.9 -15%
5 Dictator, The 4.8 -59%
6 Dark Shadows 4.4 -53%
7 Battleship 4.2 -69%
8 What to Expect When 4.2 -52%
9 For Greater Glory 2.9 NEW
10 Chernobyl Diaries 2.1 -77%

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