Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Box Office Predictions (10/02-10/04)

1. Zombieland - 17.8 Million - NEW
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - 15.8 Million - -37%
3. Toy Story and Toy Story 2 in 3D - 13.9 Million - NEW
4. Whip It - 7.3 Million - NEW
Surrogates - 6.6 Million - -56%
6. The Invention of Lying - 6.4 Million - NEW
Capitalism: A Love Story - 5.1 Million - +2199%
8. Fame - 3.8 Million - -62%
9. The Informant! - 3.6 Million - -45%
10. Tyler Perry's I Can Do Bad All By Myself - 2 Million - -58%

This is quite an abnormal week for several reasons, the primary of them being that FIVE movies either expand (Capitalism) or open (Zombieland, Toy Story Double Feature, Whip It, The Invention of Lying)
into wide release, which not only means a flooded marketplace for the new entries, but likely steep declines for those already occupying theaters. Next of all, each of the five films have thus far received exemplary marks from critics, quite the rarity considering they will all face off against one another. The weekend should belong to Zombieland, but the weekend should have belonged to Drag me to Hell back in May, so if it's taught us anything, it's to not trust a horror/comedy at the box office. I'll make the leap, however, and say if fends off Meatballs, which will try and reign for the third straight weekend. The other openers should pull modest, if underwhelming business, despite looking fantastic. This includes Disney's re-release of Toy Story and Toy Story 2 in 3D, which are being sold as a double feature; one can only hope more re-releases will follow, but the +3 hour runtime may keep some families and their little ones away, so its business could be limited. Should be an interesting weekend, to say the least.

Check back next week when there will be only one opener: Vince Vaughn and a star-laden cast in Couples Retreat.

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