Monday, November 2, 2009

Box Office Predictions (11/06-11/08)

1. Disney's A Christmas Carol - 29.8 Million - NEW
2. The Fourth Kind - 12.9 Million - NEW
3. The Box - 11.1 Million - NEW
4. Paranormal Activity - 10.5 Million - -36%
5. The Men Who Stare at Goats - 9.3 Million - NEW
6. Michael Jackson's This Is It - 8.8 Million - -62%
7. Law Abiding Citizen - 4.1 Million - -44%
8. Couples Retreat - 3.8 Million - -41%
9. Where the Wild Things Are - 2.4 Million - -59%
10. Astro Boy - 1.9 Million - -46%

It's Christmas on the first weekend in November...or something like that. It seems to get earlier every year, but that doesn't mean there won;t be takers. Disney's A Christmas Carol is a huge holiday vehicle, utilizing 3D and motion capture animation in yet another Robert Zemeckis film of such a nature. Jim Carrey will draw in those weary to hear the age old tale yet again, but its haul may not be as frontloaded as some might expect. Like its predecessor, The Polar Express, it may build slow and finish strong. That said, 30M is still likely.

Otherwise, two more horror films enter the marketplace, though each is of a different beast. The Fourth Kind looks to be a shameless attempt to capitalize on footage claimed to be "real" by the advertisements for it. This sort of horror has done well, so around 12M seems likely for it. In addition, The Box the third film from Richard Kelly (Donnie Darko, Southland Tales)looks to utilize a more old-fashioned scare machine to scare up bucks. The cast is nice (Cameron Diaz and James Marsden), but the trailers and promos are confusing and the timing is off considering the crowded marketplace. Around 10M looks right. Lastly, The Men Who Stare at Goats will earn some money off of its cast alone and may key into the same vibe that made Burn After Reading a hit last fall. 9M is likely in order.

Next week: the excruciating looking 2012 will likely be a smash success and, on a much smaller scale, the Philip Seymour Hoffman starer Pirate Radio.

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